Well all I can say is whaaat the hell happened today.  I mean I was for sure the Yankees would score SOMETHING and they didn't do shit.  CC would have done much better if he had a couple runs to work with, rather than give up like 6 runs.  Now, like I said if the Yanks would have jumped out earlier he would have pitched with much more confidence and they probably would have won the game.  I also had the Mariners today pretty big and those bastards lost it in ONE INNING.  With a freaking 4 run lead?  I just could believe that when I got home from work to check the scores.  Ah well, I guess that's baseball for ya and sometimes those are going to go in your favor and others they do not.  Just sucks when you big on those games and they lose in the final innings!!

 

Onto tomorrow's games where once again I see plenty of value here and I think I found the one game with the best line!  Now, the Cincinnati Reds have been HOT lately and I'm one guy who loves to bet on the hot team.  The Cardinals are NOT hot and that makes this even better.  Now I know Aaron Harang has been nothing compared to what he was last year, but in his last start he went seven strong innings only giving up TWO runs.  Wow, and I know that doesn't mean he is automatically back on track, but I cannot bet against him tomorrow.  Now ol' Garcia has had extremely impressive numbers so far this year, but I'm not buying it.  He has never really been that much of a pitcher and I think with the Cincinnati Red's bats being so hot they are going to tear this guy apart.  Now, some may say couldn't the Cards do the same to Harang?? NO because this guy is looking to prove something tomorrow and not make his last start seem like a fluke.  The Reds are on a roll now boys.

 

Cincinnati Reds are on so much of a roll that they swept the Pirates on the road!!  Yeah Yeah it is just the Pirates, but a sweep is a sweep and on the road it is just that much more impressive to me as a bettor.  If they can put up that many runs on the road, just imagine what they are going to do at home against a sub-par pitcher!!  The Reds will continue this streak and keep things rolling in Cincy.  With a 19-15 record and above .500 by 4 games for the first time in awhile, this is the year that the Reds will be able to contend with teams like the Cards.  Why not take a hot team, with a PROVEN pitcher at + money?? I know I'm not going to pass that shit up boys.  Not to mention they have an impressive 10-8 record at home and they will build that to 11-8 tomorrow!!  Do yourselves a favor and grab the Cincinnati Reds tomorrow for plus money boys and you will NOT regret it!! 

 

Pick:  Cincinnati Reds  +121

Well boys I haven't blogged for awhile and I think it may be a good idea to get back to it.  Not for the points really (though they are much appreciated), but more for the reason to get my head in the game.  Now I've been doing VERY well in baseball lately and I've been lucky to get where I am and up over 40+ units and just cruising at about 54% winners.  Now for tomorrow there are many games on the plate and sometimes it's tough to narrow it down to one game to blog about.  If it isn't known yet I'm a diehard Boston Red Sox fan, I mean DIE HARD.  I've loved the team forever, in the good times and bad, and sometimes it's very tough for me to bet on the Yankees.  Tomorrow CC goes up against the Detroit Tigers and this may be that one time that I do bet on the Yanks.  When there is value there is value and I really see it in this line for the Yankees tomorrow.

Most people like to wait for the lineups to come out before they lay their bets for baseball.  I personally like to bet over night lines and bet on pitching matchups to get the best line.  Now, Verlander has been pitching great so far this year posting a 4.10 ERA which is very respectable in the hard hitting American League.  The only problem with Justin Verlander is sometimes he is capable of giving up big number and the Tiger bullpen is no gem of its own.  Compare the Tiger bullpen to the Yankees bullpen and they're just night and day boys.  These are the kind of matchups we look for because it lowers the line for such a good pitcher like Sabathia.  Now in his last outing he was not good at all and that might scare some away, but I see a lot of people jumping on this team very early and jamming this line upwards, so the earlier you jump on it the better.  Hence the reason why I like to bet overnight lines boys!

Now let's compare team records.  The Yankees have a very enticing 21-11 record with an 11-9 record on the road.  That's not counting tonight's game which is looking very good in the Yankees favor.  Now, some may say, WAIT the Detroit Tigers have been CASH this year at home.  I would have to ask, do we really think that is going to last all season?? At some point in time the Tigers will falter at home for more than just one or two games.  This is the series where that 11-3 home record gets hit hard.  The Yankees are a good hard hitting team and with a pitcher like C.C. Sabathia posting up a 3.04 ERA I just can't see the Tiger being able to keep up.  I see this game being something like 6-3 in the Yankees favor.  If we can get CC to get at least 7 strong innings only giving up 2 ER and the Yanks put up enough runs early so he can get in a groove than this game is money in the bank!!

 

PLAY:  NEW YORK YANKEES -120  BIG    BOL

Well, Orlando knows how to really grind my damn gears.  What, give up SEVENTY POINTS to the damn Hornets in one half is just absolutely embarrassing.  Towards the fourth quarter they did get my spirits up because the bastards almost pulled off a cover.   I guess I wasn't surprised to see the final score, though, I just didn't think it would be so high scoring.  I was figuring of more like a 102-89 game, not the shootout we received. Vince Carter did his job and everyone sucked, especially on defense.  Oh well, off to tonight where I think I found the best value on the board boys.  Now at first I was thinking of taking this dog the whole way and then I started to break down the trends.  Yes, I do love trend betting.  I came to found that in this matchup the favorite actually has a higher percentage to cover.  So, tonight we will be taking on the game between the New Jersey Nets vs. The Cleveland Cavaliers.

 

I'm a big Cavs fan and I love to watch these guys all the time on Fox Sports Ohio and I believe I have pretty good feel of what this team can do on a night by night basis.  Now, one thing I do know is this team is susceptible to giving up a big lead in the 4^th quarter.  They do it all the damn time, so when I first saw the really big line I was thinking of jumping all over the New Jersey Nets.  Then I 2^nd guessed myself and yes I know it's bad to do it in gambling, but this time I think it will work.  The Cavilers, I think, will be able to build up a big enough lead where this won't bite them in the ass.  Let's face it, this is one of the top 2 or 3 teams in the league and New Jersey is the worst.  I mean they can't make the line -20, but they damn well should.  I see the Nets standing no chance at all against this very stout Cleveland Cavaliers team.  So far as a big home favorite (of at least 12 points) the Cavs are a pretty good 4-4 ATS and I'll take that even with this big spread.  I like these types of trends that stack up at at least 50% especially when I'm betting on the better team. 

 

As for the Nets, what can you really say?? This team is terrible!! Boasting a 4-42 record and an 18-27 record ATS why would you want to put your money on a team like this?? I know I wouldn't, and what kind of fire power do they bring to the table to even try to match the Cavs??  None at all.  These guys won't get close they will get down 20 points and just give up.  I really do smell a blow out in this one boys.  These guys are 4-12 ATS after revenging a home loss!! Their defense is giving up 104 ppg on the road and they are playing one of the best offenses in the league tonight.  That is absolutely horrible!! DO YOURSELVES A FAVOR TONIGHT!! FADE THE NEW JERSEY NETS!!!

 

Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers -16

Well, I haven't written a blog in a couple days due to a couple things...especially Super Bowl weekend.  Had a good time watching and amazing game and now I'm ready to get back on top of the NBA.  I have found recent success in betting on the totals and actually I got lucky couple time, but tonight I think I am going to go a different route.  I really really love the Orlando Magic tonight against the New Orleans Hornets.  I don't think Vegas can make this line high enough for the Magic and I really smell a big blow out tonight for the poor Hornets.  When you're missing the captain and best player on your team it makes beating the Orlando Magic and Dwight Howard an extremely hard task.  Yeah some might think this line is an easy pick for the Hornets, I mean NINE points?? That's a lot for anyone to cover, but as hot as the Magic have been lately I see this as a very good spot to bet this team tonight.

 

Now I'm seeing what everyone is saying...Orlando is to consistent and this is just too big of a line for them to cover.  "Easy pick on the Hornets for me".  Well, sorry to tell all those people but you will lose tonight.  This is not a team to mess with right now and they are going to stay on a roll.  TAKE THE HOT TEAM!!  After overlooking a couple of the trends we will kind of see that that equal themselves out.  The Orlando Magic are pushing a decent ATS record when being favored at home from 6.5-9 points at a 2-2 record.  50% is never a bad thing and is always better than 49.  Another nice stat that sticks for me is the way their defense can play shut down ball.  Like I said earlier the Hornets are without their leader and with only having Caron Butler to shoot around the ball it may be tough for them to even get points put up. Their defense is tough, really tough, and they can get the job done.  In home games this stingy defense is only giving up 93.3 ppg and their offense is scoring 103.5 in home games! WOW!  In all home games they actually have a winning ATS record going 12-11 so far on the season. 

 

The New Orleans Hornets just don't have enough to matchup against the Orlando Magic.  Dwight Howard will have a field day on these guys and paint points will come fast and easy.  The Hornets are giving up over 103ppg on the road and against a VERY explosive offense this could spell trouble for the poor Hornets.  The stingers are going to get removed tonight with the Magic coming of a gigantic win on the road against the Celtics.  I'm sure the Hornets players were partying a little more for the Super Bowl weekend because they have nothing to play for.  The Orlando Magic on the other hand have everything to play for.  Now is the time to make a push before the all-star break a make a statement finishing up the first half of the season.  BOOK EM!

 

Pick: Orlando Magic -9

I hate when I wake up and I'm like damnit, I forgot to write my blog! Hah, considering that is what I did yesterday.  Well, lately I have been betting nothing but basketball and I'm up right around 12 units on the season.  Now, since I've been writing blog I think I'm right around even and that's okay because then I'm not losing anyone any money.  Not that anyone even gets on here and reads these things lol.  On to tonight matchup where we have eleven different games on the slate to choose from and a lot of value hidden in the boards.  Out of all the games I searched around and looked at the most intriguing matchup involved the Chicago Bulls and the Philadelphia 76ers.  At first look it seems kind of scary (if using SBROdds.com) seeing at least 65% of the public riding the Bulls.  Also considering the Bulls lost pretty big last night, but do you really want to put your money the 76ers?  No, I wouldn't want my hard earned money on the crap shit team either, ESPECAILLY if they are the favored ones??!! I mean I know they are at home and I know the Bulls can be very up and down, but if they are on they won't be stopped

 

With the Chicago Bulls having guys like Derrick Rose, Luol Deng, and Tyrus Thomas off the bench who will the 76ers have to stop them?? No one, you think Allen Iverson or Elton Brand is going to help this team stop the red hot Bulls?? I think not.  Just last month (January) the Bulls had a crazy record ATS, and aren't off to the best month so far in February (0-1), but it is a long month ahead.  Not to mention the Bulls could achieve a very big goal tonight on the road if they beat the 76ers.  It would be the Bulls sixth straight win as the visiting team and that's something the Bulls haven't done for four seasons! So, no one can really say the Bulls won't have any fight in them tonight on the court.  In all road games the Bull are 12-12 ATS and I like the 50% margin, especially if the Bulls hit their scoring mark at 95 points per game on the road.  I think if the Bulls can get up 100 points on the 76ers, which should be a cake walk for this talented offense, then I see them having no trouble in slowing down the 76ers offense.

 

The 76ers are just flat out horrible ATS this year; I mean you can't trust them at all even if they are the dog.  Well, tonight they are the favorite and I think Vegas really messed it up this team.  Yeah I know I know, if it's too good to be true than it probably is, but not tonight.  This line is where is should be with the +2, because the Bulls are on the road, but don't you want to have you money on the best team tonight??  I do and that team is the Chicago Bulls.  Get it while you can boys because this line will go down!!  BOOK EM! THE 76ers are 5-18 ATS AT HOME!! ENOUGH SAID!

 

Pick: Chicago Bulls +2

It seems it has been back and forth for awhile now in my betting.  I'll win a couple and then lose a couple and I'm sitting right around 50%.  Now I do realize that anything over 50% at a flat rate unit type betting and your making money, but I don't do flat units.  I'm a spot bettor.  I like to bet in certain situations and wager a certain amount of money on games.  Now tonight is one of those nights where I might unload a little bit.  Now, at first glance many people would think I'm crazy for taking what I'm about to say.  Over 70% of the public is on this bet AND the line is moving against the team I'm betting on.  Yes, I'm looking at the Boston Celtics.  Yes, they just had a heartbreaker yesterday to the LA Lakers and yes they are old and tired but I just see this team exploding through Washington tonight.  Not because they are much better or because they should, but because they need to win this game and they know it.

 

The Boston Celtics by no means are covering machines this year.  Going only 18-26 ATS so far in the year doesn't make anyone that comfortable betting these guys at any time and the fact that they are on the road doesn't help either.  As a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points, though, they are at positive 3-2 and that's one game above .500 haha.  Now, I already knew coming into this game that I wasn't going to find a lot to support my decision.  I mean come on, these guys are old and they are on a back to back game and traveling to DC!!  But, like I said before this team really needs to win this tonight, because if they don't they could fall into one of those slumps and not get out.  I don't think they will look at this game as their normal matchup against the Washington, they will want to go in for the kill and build some confidence.  Even with Gilbert Arenas out this is still going to be a tough challenge for the Boston Celtics.  I am in no way trying to say this will be an easy win for anyone who takes the -5 on Boston, but in this position who would you want?? The Predator or the Prey?

 

Then we have Washington.  Can you believe it? They are on a TWO game winning streak!! In those two games they were actually favored in one so they are only 1-1 ATS and that's the stat bettors care about.  This team is so up and down offensively is a joke and when you are playing a team in the Boston Celtics it's not good to be so random on offense.  The Celtics D has been holding teams to a very small 93 points a game, what do you think they will do to the Wizards?? Especially with the Wizards not having Gilbert Arenas in their line up.  As if this matchup wasn't hard enough it will be that much harder with the Boston Celtics head hunting tonight.  I think Boston wins BIG in this one and takes the cake.

 

Pick: Boston Celtics -5

Well, I thought that over was going to hit easily last night and well it didn't lol.  I was hoping for just a couple more points to cover and it sucks that it didn't because it was very very close.  Off to tonight where I think the most intriguing line is inside the Chicago Bulls and New Orleans Hornets line.  It seems that every time I bet on the Hornets I get screwed and I know it kind of goes with the Bulls too because they are so erratic.  Yet, tonight I think it is the Bulls time to shine against these mangy Hornets and take the damn stinger out of their asses!  The Bulls have been a pretty solid team in January and I really do think they can cover (if you buy the hook) a 5 point spread, even on the road.   I'm also the type of guy that loves road dogs because most of the times you are getting free points from Vegas because they are always giving the home team a slight point advantage.

 

Chicago has been a pretty solid road dog this season winning ATS 15 out of the 27 road games they've had this year.  That's a pretty good winning margin on the road and tonight they are dogs.  Now when Chicago is a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points and that record comes down to more of an even mark.  This doesn't scare me away from the Bulls because I love betting on hot teams.  Not only is this team on FIRE they have been raping the points and winning ATS like crazy.  Their ATS record in the month of January was an astounding 10-4!! That is huge and a very very good record for the month.  Now is the time to hop on a team that is starting to form together and become good as hell.  This is also the last game of a long 7 game road trip, so there might be some excitement from this team tonight knowing they get to go home and what better way to do than with a win?  Not to mention this team is riding a 4 game winning streak!! How aren't they favored??

 

The Hornets have always had their ups and downs and I've never really felt comfortable betting on this team.  I think they can be a very good team especially considering that have one of the best points in the game in Chris Paul, but I don't think they have enough just yet.  Yeah they went 3-1 on their most recent road trip and yes they won their last two on the road before they came home for this game, but I don't think they will be enough to stop the red hot bulls.  Especially to cover a 4.5 point spread!! I mean I know it's at home, but give the Bulls some damn credit.  I don't think the Hornets will be as focused as this Bulls team once the game tips off because they will be more concerned about returning home after a road game in Memphis tomorrow.  The Bulls, like I said, are going to be more prepared and better focused for this game tonight.  Easy pick here for me boys.

 

Pick: Chicago Bulls +5 (bought .5 pt)

I know I know, I told you so is what anyone could say to me after last night's fiasco.  I really thought that the game would stay under if the Lakers help the Pacers under 100, but I see that it didn't matter because they did that and the game still went Over.  Oh well, onto tonight's matchup where I like the line on the Toronto Raptors vs. New York Knicks.  No I don't like the spread; I'm going to dive into another total tonight.  Of course I was thinking under at first, especially considering the fact that the New York Knicks are so erratic on the offense side of the ball.  Then I thought about and I was like, I'm taking the over.  Of course I will explain my reasoning (as I always do) in these next two paragraphs.

 

At first thought many probably think that most of the Knicks games hit the over because their defense is horrible and when they are scoring they can keep up with the best of them.  Then I noticed, that thought is the most incorrect statement ever because the lines makers tell us different.  In all of the Knicks games the UNDER outweighs the OVER 19-25!!! Wow, that is actually a pretty big split for the Knicks totals on the season.  Now I know I'm picking the over and not the under here and that doesn't really back up my pick, but there are a few other things that stick out here for a big scoring game.  First off that big split in the over and under becomes much much less when the Knicks are in Madison Square Garden.  In fact out of 19 of the OVERS that have hit in the Knicks games TWELVE of those game were at home!! Where is this game tonight??? That's right it's in Madison Square Garden.  What a perfect time to bet the over with the Knicks, especially when they are playing a team in the Raptors who have been scoring loads and loads of points over the past couple of games.

 

For the Raptors, what can you really say?? They can be a pretty solid team even thought their defense gives up 108+ points per in all of their away games, but that's what we want right? Points.  Now with those 108 they are giving up they are getting an average of 103 points per in all of their away games.  So, even though they are giving up loads up points they are scoring and scoring.  The pretty thing about this bet is that both of these teams can SCORE and both of these teams give up a lot of points as well.  The scary part with the Knicks is they can get in these ruts where they score 11 points in a quarter, which would obviously kill us on this bet.  But, as of late this team has been putting up with the likes of Toronto.  In all of Toronto's games the over has hit 26 times against the under only hitting 19 times!! Yet another huge split in totals and this time it is in our favor!! Do it boys!! Run this over and make some CASH!

 

Pick: Toronto Raptors vs. New York Knicks OVER 217.5

Well, after reading my last blog you would almost think I know what I'm doing haha.  I made the right call and ended up making money for it.  Though I don't think it was the defenses that kept the game under, I think it was more of them just missing shot after shot.  I have finally taken a winning record in blog posts as well with yesterday's pick.  Now onto the next day where I try and make me 3-2 record one game better here on the blogs.  There are plenty of games to choose from today, which means there is plenty of value all over the board if you just look for it.  After a few hours of tinkering around with numbers once again I found my best bet of the day.  Tonight's pick will involve the one of the best players in the league in Kobe Bryant against the reeling Indiana Pacers.  At first look everyone is thinking over over over, well not me I'm all over this under and I'll tell you why.

 

Let me first off start by saying, grab this line as earlier as you can!! We have watched it open at 208 and climb two points up to 210.  Now, we already have seen the line drop .5 point and we are still 5 hours away from tip!  This line will continue to drop as the wise guys are starting to put their money where it needs to be, on the under!!  First look and we can see that the Lakers are in a tough spot here, they are on a 2^nd game of a back to back and on their 5^th game of a NINE game road stand.  These guys are getting tired and that may result in jump shots landing an inch short or foul shots off a little right or left.  Most of the times on a B2B road game I always seem to find teams shooting % just a little less than average.  In a team like the Lakers this could affect their scoring for the game.  I know the Pacers don't have the best defense in the game, but they've had two days of rest and time to game plan defensively against the L.A. Lakers

 

I really do love this matchup boys and I know the over still seems like the easier play, but trust me this will stay under.  In all of Indiana's games the over and under becomes boosted, just like in a lot of the Warriors games, just because people think they give up a lot and they're going to score a lot.  Most of the time though, you need both of these events to happen to hit such a big number.  That's why when we look at the over and under number for the Pacer's games you will see that 26 times against the over that has hit only 18 times!!  Even if the Lakers go off I think their defense will do enough to hold the Pacers under 100 points and I think that is the key to this bet.  If the Pacers stay under 100 points this game stay under!  Do yourselves a favor boys and hit this line now!!!

 

Pick: Los Angeles Lakers vs. Indiana Pacers  UNDER 210

Just as I expected boys, a playoff type came that would come down to the wire and end in playoff type fashion.  I did get scared as we started to get into the 4^th quarter, but once the night ran down I knew the under would cover in that great Heat Cavs matchup.  Now onto tonight where I think I'm going to battle another total.  Took me a little bit once again to find a line soft enough and with enough edge for me to look further into it and after a little digging I found it.  Tonight's slate will consist of a matchup between the Golden State Warriors and the Sacramento Kings.  At first I'm sure a lot of bettors think of the over when it is associated with the Warriors, but not tonight my friends.  I've been 2-2 so far in blog picks and I'm hoping tonight I will take a winning record after this under hits.

 

Yes, I know, the Warriors can score lights out and they have the power to do it on almost any given night.  Now even though this is true I think some people forget how terrible the Golden State bench is.  It's horrible.  They have nobody that can do much of anything other than their starting 5 and in a game that Vegas says will hit 220 I think this could be quite difficult.  You may be thinking, well yeah they have a terrible bench, but the Timberwolves are just as bad defensively.  Not to mention the Warriors are terrible on defense as well.  That's why I love this pick, crazy right? Wrong, I love it I think this is a great place to bet this because the Warriors and the Sacramento Kings are both fully rested.  Most people may see this as a good sign for offense because players won't be too concerned with what's to come next.  I actually think the 2-3 days rest helps out both of the team's defense of schemes.  It allows them to have a couple days to look at the opposition and adjust to what they are worst at and what are both of these teams terrible at?? Yes, that's right boys DEFENSE!!

 

Well, this is usually where I start throwing a couple trends out there to make my bet feel a little more concrete.  Some interesting ones I've dug up would include the fact that the last 3 seasons these teams have played SIX of their TEN games have gone UNDER.  I think this is a weird for two teams that are so bad defensively and so quick to push the ball up the floor.  If you look at the Over/Under tendencies for Golden State's away games you will see that the UNDERs outweigh the OVERS.  I think what happens a lot of times, in any matchup with Golden State, am the over/under line get inflated because of the type of team they are.  Now even more so with the type of team they are playing and it has been pushed all the way up to 220!!! I don't see either of these teams reaching 110 tonight which means that this game can't go over!! Ride the wave boys and take the UNDER on this matchup!!!

 

Pick:  Golden State Warriors vs. Sacramento Kings UNDER 220.5