Well, I haven't written a blog in a couple days due to a couple things...especially Super Bowl weekend.  Had a good time watching and amazing game and now I'm ready to get back on top of the NBA.  I have found recent success in betting on the totals and actually I got lucky couple time, but tonight I think I am going to go a different route.  I really really love the Orlando Magic tonight against the New Orleans Hornets.  I don't think Vegas can make this line high enough for the Magic and I really smell a big blow out tonight for the poor Hornets.  When you're missing the captain and best player on your team it makes beating the Orlando Magic and Dwight Howard an extremely hard task.  Yeah some might think this line is an easy pick for the Hornets, I mean NINE points?? That's a lot for anyone to cover, but as hot as the Magic have been lately I see this as a very good spot to bet this team tonight.

 

Now I'm seeing what everyone is saying...Orlando is to consistent and this is just too big of a line for them to cover.  "Easy pick on the Hornets for me".  Well, sorry to tell all those people but you will lose tonight.  This is not a team to mess with right now and they are going to stay on a roll.  TAKE THE HOT TEAM!!  After overlooking a couple of the trends we will kind of see that that equal themselves out.  The Orlando Magic are pushing a decent ATS record when being favored at home from 6.5-9 points at a 2-2 record.  50% is never a bad thing and is always better than 49.  Another nice stat that sticks for me is the way their defense can play shut down ball.  Like I said earlier the Hornets are without their leader and with only having Caron Butler to shoot around the ball it may be tough for them to even get points put up. Their defense is tough, really tough, and they can get the job done.  In home games this stingy defense is only giving up 93.3 ppg and their offense is scoring 103.5 in home games! WOW!  In all home games they actually have a winning ATS record going 12-11 so far on the season. 

 

The New Orleans Hornets just don't have enough to matchup against the Orlando Magic.  Dwight Howard will have a field day on these guys and paint points will come fast and easy.  The Hornets are giving up over 103ppg on the road and against a VERY explosive offense this could spell trouble for the poor Hornets.  The stingers are going to get removed tonight with the Magic coming of a gigantic win on the road against the Celtics.  I'm sure the Hornets players were partying a little more for the Super Bowl weekend because they have nothing to play for.  The Orlando Magic on the other hand have everything to play for.  Now is the time to make a push before the all-star break a make a statement finishing up the first half of the season.  BOOK EM!

 

Pick: Orlando Magic -9

I hate when I wake up and I'm like damnit, I forgot to write my blog! Hah, considering that is what I did yesterday.  Well, lately I have been betting nothing but basketball and I'm up right around 12 units on the season.  Now, since I've been writing blog I think I'm right around even and that's okay because then I'm not losing anyone any money.  Not that anyone even gets on here and reads these things lol.  On to tonight matchup where we have eleven different games on the slate to choose from and a lot of value hidden in the boards.  Out of all the games I searched around and looked at the most intriguing matchup involved the Chicago Bulls and the Philadelphia 76ers.  At first look it seems kind of scary (if using SBROdds.com) seeing at least 65% of the public riding the Bulls.  Also considering the Bulls lost pretty big last night, but do you really want to put your money the 76ers?  No, I wouldn't want my hard earned money on the crap shit team either, ESPECAILLY if they are the favored ones??!! I mean I know they are at home and I know the Bulls can be very up and down, but if they are on they won't be stopped

 

With the Chicago Bulls having guys like Derrick Rose, Luol Deng, and Tyrus Thomas off the bench who will the 76ers have to stop them?? No one, you think Allen Iverson or Elton Brand is going to help this team stop the red hot Bulls?? I think not.  Just last month (January) the Bulls had a crazy record ATS, and aren't off to the best month so far in February (0-1), but it is a long month ahead.  Not to mention the Bulls could achieve a very big goal tonight on the road if they beat the 76ers.  It would be the Bulls sixth straight win as the visiting team and that's something the Bulls haven't done for four seasons! So, no one can really say the Bulls won't have any fight in them tonight on the court.  In all road games the Bull are 12-12 ATS and I like the 50% margin, especially if the Bulls hit their scoring mark at 95 points per game on the road.  I think if the Bulls can get up 100 points on the 76ers, which should be a cake walk for this talented offense, then I see them having no trouble in slowing down the 76ers offense.

 

The 76ers are just flat out horrible ATS this year; I mean you can't trust them at all even if they are the dog.  Well, tonight they are the favorite and I think Vegas really messed it up this team.  Yeah I know I know, if it's too good to be true than it probably is, but not tonight.  This line is where is should be with the +2, because the Bulls are on the road, but don't you want to have you money on the best team tonight??  I do and that team is the Chicago Bulls.  Get it while you can boys because this line will go down!!  BOOK EM! THE 76ers are 5-18 ATS AT HOME!! ENOUGH SAID!

 

Pick: Chicago Bulls +2

It seems it has been back and forth for awhile now in my betting.  I'll win a couple and then lose a couple and I'm sitting right around 50%.  Now I do realize that anything over 50% at a flat rate unit type betting and your making money, but I don't do flat units.  I'm a spot bettor.  I like to bet in certain situations and wager a certain amount of money on games.  Now tonight is one of those nights where I might unload a little bit.  Now, at first glance many people would think I'm crazy for taking what I'm about to say.  Over 70% of the public is on this bet AND the line is moving against the team I'm betting on.  Yes, I'm looking at the Boston Celtics.  Yes, they just had a heartbreaker yesterday to the LA Lakers and yes they are old and tired but I just see this team exploding through Washington tonight.  Not because they are much better or because they should, but because they need to win this game and they know it.

 

The Boston Celtics by no means are covering machines this year.  Going only 18-26 ATS so far in the year doesn't make anyone that comfortable betting these guys at any time and the fact that they are on the road doesn't help either.  As a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points, though, they are at positive 3-2 and that's one game above .500 haha.  Now, I already knew coming into this game that I wasn't going to find a lot to support my decision.  I mean come on, these guys are old and they are on a back to back game and traveling to DC!!  But, like I said before this team really needs to win this tonight, because if they don't they could fall into one of those slumps and not get out.  I don't think they will look at this game as their normal matchup against the Washington, they will want to go in for the kill and build some confidence.  Even with Gilbert Arenas out this is still going to be a tough challenge for the Boston Celtics.  I am in no way trying to say this will be an easy win for anyone who takes the -5 on Boston, but in this position who would you want?? The Predator or the Prey?

 

Then we have Washington.  Can you believe it? They are on a TWO game winning streak!! In those two games they were actually favored in one so they are only 1-1 ATS and that's the stat bettors care about.  This team is so up and down offensively is a joke and when you are playing a team in the Boston Celtics it's not good to be so random on offense.  The Celtics D has been holding teams to a very small 93 points a game, what do you think they will do to the Wizards?? Especially with the Wizards not having Gilbert Arenas in their line up.  As if this matchup wasn't hard enough it will be that much harder with the Boston Celtics head hunting tonight.  I think Boston wins BIG in this one and takes the cake.

 

Pick: Boston Celtics -5

Well, I thought that over was going to hit easily last night and well it didn't lol.  I was hoping for just a couple more points to cover and it sucks that it didn't because it was very very close.  Off to tonight where I think the most intriguing line is inside the Chicago Bulls and New Orleans Hornets line.  It seems that every time I bet on the Hornets I get screwed and I know it kind of goes with the Bulls too because they are so erratic.  Yet, tonight I think it is the Bulls time to shine against these mangy Hornets and take the damn stinger out of their asses!  The Bulls have been a pretty solid team in January and I really do think they can cover (if you buy the hook) a 5 point spread, even on the road.   I'm also the type of guy that loves road dogs because most of the times you are getting free points from Vegas because they are always giving the home team a slight point advantage.

 

Chicago has been a pretty solid road dog this season winning ATS 15 out of the 27 road games they've had this year.  That's a pretty good winning margin on the road and tonight they are dogs.  Now when Chicago is a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points and that record comes down to more of an even mark.  This doesn't scare me away from the Bulls because I love betting on hot teams.  Not only is this team on FIRE they have been raping the points and winning ATS like crazy.  Their ATS record in the month of January was an astounding 10-4!! That is huge and a very very good record for the month.  Now is the time to hop on a team that is starting to form together and become good as hell.  This is also the last game of a long 7 game road trip, so there might be some excitement from this team tonight knowing they get to go home and what better way to do than with a win?  Not to mention this team is riding a 4 game winning streak!! How aren't they favored??

 

The Hornets have always had their ups and downs and I've never really felt comfortable betting on this team.  I think they can be a very good team especially considering that have one of the best points in the game in Chris Paul, but I don't think they have enough just yet.  Yeah they went 3-1 on their most recent road trip and yes they won their last two on the road before they came home for this game, but I don't think they will be enough to stop the red hot bulls.  Especially to cover a 4.5 point spread!! I mean I know it's at home, but give the Bulls some damn credit.  I don't think the Hornets will be as focused as this Bulls team once the game tips off because they will be more concerned about returning home after a road game in Memphis tomorrow.  The Bulls, like I said, are going to be more prepared and better focused for this game tonight.  Easy pick here for me boys.

 

Pick: Chicago Bulls +5 (bought .5 pt)

I know I know, I told you so is what anyone could say to me after last night's fiasco.  I really thought that the game would stay under if the Lakers help the Pacers under 100, but I see that it didn't matter because they did that and the game still went Over.  Oh well, onto tonight's matchup where I like the line on the Toronto Raptors vs. New York Knicks.  No I don't like the spread; I'm going to dive into another total tonight.  Of course I was thinking under at first, especially considering the fact that the New York Knicks are so erratic on the offense side of the ball.  Then I thought about and I was like, I'm taking the over.  Of course I will explain my reasoning (as I always do) in these next two paragraphs.

 

At first thought many probably think that most of the Knicks games hit the over because their defense is horrible and when they are scoring they can keep up with the best of them.  Then I noticed, that thought is the most incorrect statement ever because the lines makers tell us different.  In all of the Knicks games the UNDER outweighs the OVER 19-25!!! Wow, that is actually a pretty big split for the Knicks totals on the season.  Now I know I'm picking the over and not the under here and that doesn't really back up my pick, but there are a few other things that stick out here for a big scoring game.  First off that big split in the over and under becomes much much less when the Knicks are in Madison Square Garden.  In fact out of 19 of the OVERS that have hit in the Knicks games TWELVE of those game were at home!! Where is this game tonight??? That's right it's in Madison Square Garden.  What a perfect time to bet the over with the Knicks, especially when they are playing a team in the Raptors who have been scoring loads and loads of points over the past couple of games.

 

For the Raptors, what can you really say?? They can be a pretty solid team even thought their defense gives up 108+ points per in all of their away games, but that's what we want right? Points.  Now with those 108 they are giving up they are getting an average of 103 points per in all of their away games.  So, even though they are giving up loads up points they are scoring and scoring.  The pretty thing about this bet is that both of these teams can SCORE and both of these teams give up a lot of points as well.  The scary part with the Knicks is they can get in these ruts where they score 11 points in a quarter, which would obviously kill us on this bet.  But, as of late this team has been putting up with the likes of Toronto.  In all of Toronto's games the over has hit 26 times against the under only hitting 19 times!! Yet another huge split in totals and this time it is in our favor!! Do it boys!! Run this over and make some CASH!

 

Pick: Toronto Raptors vs. New York Knicks OVER 217.5

Well, after reading my last blog you would almost think I know what I'm doing haha.  I made the right call and ended up making money for it.  Though I don't think it was the defenses that kept the game under, I think it was more of them just missing shot after shot.  I have finally taken a winning record in blog posts as well with yesterday's pick.  Now onto the next day where I try and make me 3-2 record one game better here on the blogs.  There are plenty of games to choose from today, which means there is plenty of value all over the board if you just look for it.  After a few hours of tinkering around with numbers once again I found my best bet of the day.  Tonight's pick will involve the one of the best players in the league in Kobe Bryant against the reeling Indiana Pacers.  At first look everyone is thinking over over over, well not me I'm all over this under and I'll tell you why.

 

Let me first off start by saying, grab this line as earlier as you can!! We have watched it open at 208 and climb two points up to 210.  Now, we already have seen the line drop .5 point and we are still 5 hours away from tip!  This line will continue to drop as the wise guys are starting to put their money where it needs to be, on the under!!  First look and we can see that the Lakers are in a tough spot here, they are on a 2^nd game of a back to back and on their 5^th game of a NINE game road stand.  These guys are getting tired and that may result in jump shots landing an inch short or foul shots off a little right or left.  Most of the times on a B2B road game I always seem to find teams shooting % just a little less than average.  In a team like the Lakers this could affect their scoring for the game.  I know the Pacers don't have the best defense in the game, but they've had two days of rest and time to game plan defensively against the L.A. Lakers

 

I really do love this matchup boys and I know the over still seems like the easier play, but trust me this will stay under.  In all of Indiana's games the over and under becomes boosted, just like in a lot of the Warriors games, just because people think they give up a lot and they're going to score a lot.  Most of the time though, you need both of these events to happen to hit such a big number.  That's why when we look at the over and under number for the Pacer's games you will see that 26 times against the over that has hit only 18 times!!  Even if the Lakers go off I think their defense will do enough to hold the Pacers under 100 points and I think that is the key to this bet.  If the Pacers stay under 100 points this game stay under!  Do yourselves a favor boys and hit this line now!!!

 

Pick: Los Angeles Lakers vs. Indiana Pacers  UNDER 210

Just as I expected boys, a playoff type came that would come down to the wire and end in playoff type fashion.  I did get scared as we started to get into the 4^th quarter, but once the night ran down I knew the under would cover in that great Heat Cavs matchup.  Now onto tonight where I think I'm going to battle another total.  Took me a little bit once again to find a line soft enough and with enough edge for me to look further into it and after a little digging I found it.  Tonight's slate will consist of a matchup between the Golden State Warriors and the Sacramento Kings.  At first I'm sure a lot of bettors think of the over when it is associated with the Warriors, but not tonight my friends.  I've been 2-2 so far in blog picks and I'm hoping tonight I will take a winning record after this under hits.

 

Yes, I know, the Warriors can score lights out and they have the power to do it on almost any given night.  Now even though this is true I think some people forget how terrible the Golden State bench is.  It's horrible.  They have nobody that can do much of anything other than their starting 5 and in a game that Vegas says will hit 220 I think this could be quite difficult.  You may be thinking, well yeah they have a terrible bench, but the Timberwolves are just as bad defensively.  Not to mention the Warriors are terrible on defense as well.  That's why I love this pick, crazy right? Wrong, I love it I think this is a great place to bet this because the Warriors and the Sacramento Kings are both fully rested.  Most people may see this as a good sign for offense because players won't be too concerned with what's to come next.  I actually think the 2-3 days rest helps out both of the team's defense of schemes.  It allows them to have a couple days to look at the opposition and adjust to what they are worst at and what are both of these teams terrible at?? Yes, that's right boys DEFENSE!!

 

Well, this is usually where I start throwing a couple trends out there to make my bet feel a little more concrete.  Some interesting ones I've dug up would include the fact that the last 3 seasons these teams have played SIX of their TEN games have gone UNDER.  I think this is a weird for two teams that are so bad defensively and so quick to push the ball up the floor.  If you look at the Over/Under tendencies for Golden State's away games you will see that the UNDERs outweigh the OVERS.  I think what happens a lot of times, in any matchup with Golden State, am the over/under line get inflated because of the type of team they are.  Now even more so with the type of team they are playing and it has been pushed all the way up to 220!!! I don't see either of these teams reaching 110 tonight which means that this game can't go over!! Ride the wave boys and take the UNDER on this matchup!!!

 

Pick:  Golden State Warriors vs. Sacramento Kings UNDER 220.5

Well, another day and another loss on my last blog write up.  I decided thereafter to take a day off and just enjoy the beautiful Football Sunday we were all given last night.  Two GREAT football games, but now onto the real deal... THE NBA!!   Tonight my favorite matchup brings, yet again, two of the better players in the NBA together on the main stage.  The Cleveland Cavaliers vs. The Miami Heat.  I love that this game is sitting at a pick right now, because I believe that's where the game should be.   Even though I had the Cavs picked against the Lakers at home this team is completely different on the road and the same goes for Miami at home.  Now, at first I'm thinking wow, what an easy pick we have here.  If Miami is a pick and there is some RLM going on with over 80% of the public on the Cavs this should be an EASY pick on Miami.  Yet, as of let I've had trouble picking sides, so I looked at the total of 190.  Now, if the Heat is going to stand a chance against the Cavs tonight I think it will have to come in a defensive effort and I see a game being scored in the low 90's by both teams.

 

Then comes step two, finding the stats to back up what I think is going on.  I know the Cavs have been on fire lately, destroying almost every team in its path, but their games have been going over at a high rate.  Now I know the Cavs can score a bundle of points, but I think this is uncharacteristic of their team because they are a defensive minded team.  They are also going yet again without Mo Williams in the starting lineup and even though they have a very deep bench this will help the Under 190 hit.  The Heat can look at this game in the same way.  This is the last game at home before they go on a rather lengthy road expedition, so the Heat could use this game as a huge boost going forward on the road when they play 11 of their next 13 on away.  I see both teams looking at this game as more of a playoff type atmosphere and allowing very few points and both teams playing very very tight on the defensive side of the ball.

 

If you've been reading my blogs, then you know that not only am I more of a "feel" bettor I also like trends.  Now I don't make all of my plays based just on trends because I know they can go both ways.  I just think they are a nice reminder of what has happened and helps give percentages of what could come.  Now the Heat as an underdog are hitting the under at a record of 13-9. (U/O)  The Cavs are hitting the under at a record of 21-18 as a favorite.  I know these are only two stats, but these are very specific stats.  The Heat is the underdog and the Cavs are the favorite and when these situations happen for both of these teams the UNDER usually hits.  I think both of these teams will be much more focused on defensive rather than offense and it comes out as a low scoring game.

 

PICK: Cleveland Cavs vs. Miami Heat UNDER 190

That's what I'm talking about baby!! Nice win, even though it was a little crazy down the wire with the -3, the Cavs still pulled it off to get my Blog record to 1-1. Nice. Now onto tonight, I glanced at the lines on SBR's live lines and just looked a crossed the board. Nothing really stuck out until I saw it, one bad team verses another bad team. What an epic matchup to risk my money on, none other than the Indiana Pacers vs. Detroit Pistons. Now I know each team has a losing record and it may seem that neither team has anything to really fight for, even this early on in the season. Yet, I see good value in this -3.5 line for the Detroit Pistons.



Even though there is all this sales talk of the Pistons and how owner Karen Davidson wants to sell the team, I think this has no effect on Detroit tonight. I actually think that if it affects them at all it will motivate them to slap this lady in the face. This hasn't been the typical season for the Pistons either, this isn't the type of record they are used to holding. Yet, here we halfway through and we are starting to see life in this Pistons team again. They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 and that same matches with their SU record, so what does this tell us? They are winning again and not just ATS, they are getting W's in the win column. Offense has been another stepping stone for this team in most of their losing games. The Indiana Pacers are a team that gives up 104 ppg!!! Tell me how the Pistons will struggle against a D like that?? Not to mention that in this nice five game run they have scored at least 90 points in each contest.



Now on to the Indiana Pacers, after what was a legit hot steak winning five in a row the Pacers have since cooled off. They have lost their last three games SU and are 2-2 ATS in their last four games. To make matters worse they are on the third leg of a three game road trip. These guys are going to be worn out and ready to finally go home after all the travel. They aren't getting enough points for the position they are in and it's time to strike. The public is all over this team carrying 80% of the load and the line has stayed steady throughout. It has never once moved against the Pistons and that makes me lick my chops. On the flip side the Pistons are on the 2^nd leg of a nice 6 game home stand. This is where they can start to make a swing and get back in the playoff hunt. Tonight would make back to back wins for this team and some to play for throughout the rest of the season. I think this is a huge game for the Pistons and in the end they will want it more.



Pick: Detroit Pistons -3.5 (-110)

Well, last night didn't go as planned.  I had the OKC Thunder winning in a blowout and there were times in the game where I thought the Thunder would pull away, but they just didn't.  Off to tonight's game where we have the Cavs matching up against the Lakers.  This has become one of the more intriguing matchups in the NBA with the likes of Lebron and Kobe.  At first I was leaning Lakers and Kobe to take the Cavs off their high seat at home, but I thought differently.  As of late the Cavs have been on fire on offense scoring points on top of points.  This is the type of game that I think will take down the Lakers.

 

I know I know the Lakers are such a powerful offense with so many tools.  I know I know Kobe is one of the best scorers in the NBA and it takes more than the normal guy to guard him, but tonight we have Lebron, who can guard him.  Now the first trend that popped out to me for the Cavs is the fact that these boys are 13-6 ATS against teams with winning records.   The Lakers have a winning record.  The Cavs are also 15-3 at home all this season which is a pretty stout record up against the Lakers'  9-6 road record.  That 9-6 road record SU includes a record of 5-10 ATS!!.  Those two numbers alone should have your chops drooling all over the Cavs tonight.  The Lakers don't score nearly as many points on the road and against a very stout D in the Cavs it will be even harder to get those points.  I know the Cavs D has been struggling as of late, but this is one of those games where the Cavs can make a statement against the defending champs.

 

Now, nothing is telling me that this game is going to be a blowout.  I know the game should be a pick em, but since the Cavs are playing at home they're going to receive the 3 points and we will take them.  I can also see the Lakers winning this game, but not in the fashion that some may be used to the Lakers winning.  I think no matter what this is going to be a very very close ball game, but the Cavs will cover the three and here are a few more reasons why I think that.  First off, Mo Williams will not be in tonight's game.  Some may think this will hurt the Cavs, I think it will give the Cavs a new look with guys that want to play hard.  With Mo out guys like Gibson and Delonte will get a lot more playing time and I think this will help the Cavs defensively and it will help them behind the 3 point line.    The Cavs beat the Lakers earlier in the season and what would feel better than to knock them off twice.  They have the size to do again against a very large Lakers team.  Guys like Shaq and Big Z will help trap down this explosive Lakers offense and hold them to less boards and easy shots to give the Cavs the win.  Let's also not forget that the Lakers best play, Kobe Bryant, has been battling a few minor injuries and is cleary not 100%.  Take it boys, FREE MONEY TONIIIGHT!! TAKE THEM CAVS!

 

Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers -3 (-104)